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Predicting is fun.
Gather a couple of proofs and you can make your own sensational prediction that goes against the popular belief.
For example, I predict that huge profits in the future will be offline again. The internet business fad will fade eventually. It may be the most exciting place to have huge earnings, but it’s the hardest one too, statistically speaking.
Stuart, Jason and Seth have given me arguments to support this.
On the other hand, the internet lets you reach a lot of people fast and cheap. Make $1 from each costumer, and you have a millionaire business. Maybe we’ll see a bigger boom of these business models…
You see the problem with predictions, don’t you? There are always arguments to support them or refute them. Otherwise they’d be facts.
It’s not about being right about your predictions, that’s not the point.
It’s about doing it. Taking chances and going with them.
Bottom Line: Predict away. That’s your only shot for a breakthrough.
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Comments
09.03.09
Here's an interesting thing about predictions: I read in the Harvard Business Review that people who are perceived as experts are not right more often, then just declare their ideas more often and with more conviction. So I think the thing about predicting what is right is that people actually appreciate when you take the risk to make a prediction -- whether you're right or not.
Penelope
09.03.09
Exactly. Risk takers are still scarce, that's why they're valuable.
09.03.09
I think people take chances every day, whether they realize it or not. However, the more aware of risks you are through either education or experience, the more courage and confidence it takes to continue risking yourself for a greater good. The margins become narrower for what you can achieve the farther along you go in life, but choosing to more forward is the only choice for some. That's where innovation happens.
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