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Posted On 05.20.09

New stats I just peeped at the Center for American Progress and wow this is pretty stunning:

Just check out them figures! “Milennials” overwhelmingly in favour of:

- investment in education, infrastructure and science.

- sustainability through energy conservation and less consumption

- renewable energy

- combatting climate change

- positive and engaging foreign policy

- universal & affordable health coverage guaranteed by the Government.

Awesome. So what do we see here? We see a whole bunch of liberal policies and a whole bunch of stuff from Obama’s electoral platform. Whether Obama will actually achieve this stuff is anybody’s guess but the figures support an overwhelmingly liberal political bent.

We’re talking about single figure percentages for disagree on many of the above questions with none above 20%! Shoot!

And all this does appear to be pointing toward strong government rather than economic rationalism or free-market dominance…

So surprise surprise, Gen Yers know this – according to the 2008 National Election Study:

Just read those figures folks! 78% in favour of strong government and only 22% against! I reailse you’re not blind and probably can see this yourself on the left but I just had to type it again!

So what about all those teabagging tea parties? What happened to #tcot? Well what’s happening is that Gen Y overwhelmingly… doesn’t care about your grassroots protest movement.

And who are Gen Y? We’re talking about the future of the United States and the rest of the planet by default. Seems the GOP is in deep deep trouble indeed.

Share and Enjoy:

Comments

05.20.09

I think you're taking a general thing that young people are usually aligned with and just applying it to Gen Y. But that doesn't mean that Gen Y will always be aligned with liberal politics. It's not a hidden fact that the majority of young people are more liberal, and not just now. Look at the 60's. But as people get older and older, they lose some of their idealism and start to think more about what's the best for themselves and their families. They then align with the politics that help them out the most.

That being said, you're probably right about the GOP being dead, unless they change their policies and try to restart themselves for the new era. Which is something that they will do, since politics is never a black and white thing and always a changing process. How they'll do that? I have no idea, but I can bet that they will.

05.20.09

@Peter,

I think the survey was specifically done with respondents classified as 'Milennials' which I interpreted as Gen Y. They are the same aren't they? I've always been slightly confused by these Generational terms.

I think you make a good point about young people being generally idealistic though I do wonder a couple of things:

- what sort of figures would we have if we interviewed people of a similar age group during Reagan's time which, I'm told, was the last golden era of Conservatism in the US... and

- is the question of strong government involvement in the economy vs. an entirely market-based approach a question of idealism vs. pragmatism or are we merely looking at two alternate ideologies/points-of-view?

Thanks for the thoughtful comment!

Scott
05.20.09

I am a millennial and am as conservative as anybody and even I would vote yes on most of these (not the global warming one or the health care one).

The way the questions are worded are simply ridiculous.

Saying I want the gov to invest in infrastructure, education and science is in no way an endorsement of liberal policy. The gov has ALWAYS invested in these things - even under conservative presidents/congress'. The question does not ask if I want MORE investment than before. It doesn't ask if I think we can improve our education system by throwing more money at it. Find me one conservative from any generation who says the gov should not spend a single penny on these three things.

Similarly, even if I believe we should eventually get away from oil, that doesn't mean I want the gov to be involved.

Your lack of insight and analysis is not shocking but truly is laughable.

All that being said, I don't disagree with your underlying premise that the younger generations are more liberal. They will either wise up eventually like younger generations have always historically done, or this country will become more like Europe, which is a very scary thought.

Brazen, This is the best we can do? Seriously?

Mike
05.20.09

Agreed that the wording on the questions is completely ridiculous. Previous poster (Scott) has it absolutely right on.

That said, there's several reasons why Gen Y's tend to lean liberal today.

First, they're too young to care about taxes. Face it, young folks don't make much money, because they're early in their careers. Therefore, they're likely fall into the over 40% of the country that pay no income tax at all. They're getting a free ride. Of course they want more programs and government...they're getting it for free. Even if they are paying income tax, it's overwhelmingly in the lower tax brackets, where it affects their bottom line very little.

Second, they're VERY easily impressed with image. In the me-focused world of twitter, blogs, and facebook, everything is about them and the image that they present to the world (either through social media or not). Right now, accomplishments aren't important, image is. Image definitely trumps substance lately (reference November). Hand-in-hand with image, is their upbringing during the self-esteem movement. The constant drumbeat that "you can be anything!", "you're special!", and "no one is more important than you" plays directly to their entitlement attitude. Gen Y's desire to feel "revolutionary" and part of something new, exciting, and different. Right now, the liberal movement (and their head honcho) touts that like crazy. Remember getting sick of "change"?

Third, they're too young to be fearful of big government. The names Reagan and Thatcher barely ring a bell with Gen Y'ers. They're lucky to have been born in such an opportune time, but they've been given a completely one-sided view of government. Few remember the poverty, discord, and suffering that big government, communism, and socialism brought to the world in previous decades. They haven't seen the gross inefficiencies and gridlock that comes from "expanded roles" of government and government intervention.

All that said, though, most will grow out of it as soon as they start to make real money, own their own business, or become parents, like they always have.

05.20.09

Haha, I have nothing more to add to this conversation. Everyone else beat me to the points!

1. Questions are horribly worded and anyone would agree. (What I find laughable is the "strong government" term, they are trying their darndest to not say "big" or "socialism" aren't they?)

2. Absolutely right, they are not paying taxes and even if they are, they are not taking a close enough look. (Until I got married and had a kid, I never looked at the percentage taken out...over 35% and I don't even make $40,000 a year!!?)

3. This generation surely has grown up in a "safe" "me" environment. You don't get failing grades anymore, dodgeball singles out kids so it can't be played, trophies are given to 6th place winners (even if there are only 6 people participating), you can do anything and be anything, "yes we can" ring a bell?

4. I agree with the whole growing out of liberal mentality, if it wasn't true, the 60s' mentality would have run the republican party out of DC by the 80s', the only thing it has done is demolished our educational system

The only thing I have to add is that the GOP is not dead. What they need to do is stop with all the Reagan stuff, Reagan wasn't great because of who he was (though he was a great man), he was great because of what he stood for. They need to look past the man and look to the morals and values that he stood for. once they can do that and get back to what the party was based on, they will be in good shape again.

05.20.09

Hey,

1) I agree with the criticisms or the wording of the poll questions

2) I don't think the Gen Y liberal trend will reverse itself as they get older and move up into higher tax brackets. I wrote a blog post on this issue: http://millennialisms.wordpress.com/2009/03/06/gop-will-lose-gen-y-forever/

3)Studies show that the old saying of "if your not liberal at 20 you don't have a heart. And if your not conservative at 40 you have no money." doesn't really hold water. However you voted at 18 is how you will vote for the rest of your life. If the republican president was unpopular when you are 18 then you will generally trend more democratic. Same thing goes the other way. So we had 8 years of Clinton who is viewed as an above average president. Followed by 8 years of Bush, who is considered one of the worst. And now 4 or 8 years of Obama. This could be 32 years of 18 year olds that tread more democratic: Check it our for yourself: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/bush-may-haunt-republicans-for.html

05.20.09

Sam, I disagree on one thing that I feel a lot of people tend to stray away from because it is a "sensitive" topic. I really believe that a lot of people, especially in the Gen Y range, voted for Obama to make the history of the first Black President and they did so under only that as their guiding political agenda.

I am not saying, at all, that ALL of Obama's supporters voted for THAT reason BUT you have to be honest and at least realize that a lot of those people will be up for changing their mind depending on the political wind the next time around.

I disagree with you on your changing parties as you get older, I have met enough in my lifetime that have changed from R to D or vice versa...both ways and it never seems to be a pocket trend.

05.20.09

Chris,

Did you look at the fivethrityeight link? I think it is very insightful and that blog in general is one of the best (no bullshit, just data).

In that blog post it says that a lot of young people voted against Republicans rather then for Democrats.

I'm sure that some young people voted for Obama strictly to make history, and that this kind of underlying reasoning is hard to weed out using polling data. That being said, I think most young people voted for him because they hated Bush and McCain was very old and Obama was young.

Finally, I think they agreed with him on the issues at hand: Mainly to get out of Iraq. I think his blackness was very low on the totem pole, I would put it below his excellent speaking but above his good basketball skills.

05.20.09

Sam, this may come as a surprise to you but I am not at all stunned that people voted against the republican party for the reasons you listed. Unfortunately Bush tarnished the party's ideals, now people think republicans are the "big" government because of his policies instead of the Dems with their spending.

The point that drives that is the big brother idea about the patriot act. I can't believe the real story never came out on that, that the government wasn't listening in on phone calls like people were so paranoid about, it was analyzing number patterns of calls made outside the US. Once those patterns were deemed "questionable" they had to obtain a warrent for tracking...unbelievable.

Once again, I also agree with you on why they DID vote for Obama as well (besides the voting against thing for the republicans), he is young, a good speaker (with teleprompter) and a likeable person....none of which has to do with politics, maybe speaking a little, but to say speaking is a trait of a president means we can't have a mute that could lead by other means.

05.20.09

So you pick a study from an organization that wants to "lay a vision of a progressive America" (their words not mine) and use it to try to illustrate something that is already well known? Yes, younger people are prone to being more liberal. Probably not to the extent that "survey" (to put it loosely) says but it is certainly significant.

Evan
05.20.09

I don't think the wording of the questions is "ridiculous," as others have said, but I do think the conclusions drawn from these numbers might be. At least a few of these questions are no-brainers for most people.

I think it also makes sense to be at least a little bit skeptical of a study which claims to show that a demographic group supports a certain ideology, when the study is presented by a group that exists specifically to promote that ideology. The fact that the "Agree" responses are colored blue and the "Disagree" responses are colored red seems intentionally designed to make readers believe that all who agree are Democrats and all who disagree are Republicans. There probably is some correlation with this, but I suspect it is less dramatic than the graphics would lead you to believe.

The last pair of statements is particularly misleading, presenting a choice between "strong government" and no government involvement. Even most conservatives would not support the idea of zero government involvement in the economy.

The political momentum in the U.S. is shifting towards the left, but I think it's too early to say that this change is permanent. However, I do agree that the GOP is in trouble at the moment.

olivia
05.20.09

Too lazy to sign in...

I always found it insulting that people assume most people my age were not voting issue based. Most people I know did vote issue based, and there appears to be a trend in our generation of more issue based voting than our parents.

I agree with the questions being a tad ridiculous, but they do help them get what they want for an answer, so they can interpret it a certain way.

I also suggest five thirty eight, he has pretty sound data and usually does a good job analyzing it for a blog.

It is very easy to get the results you want from most any poll if you know what results you want before hand. God Bless the Center For American Progress, but I'm always cautious with think tank polls or research from tanks which lean specifically either right or left and are naturally bias.

05.21.09

Hey guys,

Quick note to say thanks for the thoughtful comments! I think all of you raise some interesting points, I must admit I didn't look hard enough at the organisation running the survey and the legitimacy of the question wording. While I won't go so far as to say that they are worded 'ridiculously', I do see where the bias may be.

I would also like to strongly agree with Olivia about the way Milennials vote. I strongly believe that people our age, both in the US and in Australia, vote on the basis of issues rather than merely how much/little they get taxed, particularly in the US where voting is not compulsory (like in Australia).

I shall be more cautious in the future about think tank polls, the truth is I'm still familiarising myself with the US electoral/political landscape as it's not the country in which I'm a citizen.

So thanks for the thoughts!
Alex

Miles
05.21.09

@Chris - 35% tax rate at less than 40k? You need a new accountant! 35% is the highest tax bracket, you should be paying around 25% or at most 28%. After you add in the kid (dependent) and if your wife isn't working (another dependent) plus scores of other deductions even young people can qualify for, you won't even be paying that. You want to complain about tax rates at least be honest!

05.21.09

@Miles, I was being honest, I took another look at my checks and refigured it out, made a little mistake and forgot to figure in the health care costs taken out. My bad BUT does that diminish the fact that the taxes are still TOO HIGH? I am still coming in at over 25% and most people take that number at face value instead of actually saying "wait a minute, at least 1/4 of my check is going to taxes?"

The fact of the matter is, when it comes to taxes, if everyone had 10% taken out, TOTAL, and the government spent our money wisely (that's the key), you wouldn't have to raise taxes and certainly wouldn't have to have them as high as they are.

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