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Posted On 03.27.09

I’ve always hated when people called successful individuals “lucky”.  Luck has nothing to do with it, I’d argue.  Success is about hard work, talent and intelligence.  After reading Malcolm Gladwells book, Outliers, this weekend I was forced to back off that stance.  At least a little bit.

In his book, Gladwell argues (and essentially proves) that while hard work and talent are certainly a huge part of success, circumstances beyond our control often play an equally big role in our successes and failures.  One example he gives is Bill Gates.  Gates talent and work ethic are well known, but what’s not well known is the fact that he was one of the only high school students in the world to have regular access to a computer in 1968.  Would Microsoft exist today if Bill Gates wouldn’t have been able to combine his talent/work ethic with the extremely rare opportunity to work with computers in the late 1960’s?  Gladwell says no (and Gates agrees).

One of the areas of the book I found most interesting was Gladwells claim that certain generations are more set up to produce “outliers” than other generations.  For example, of the 75 richest people in the history of the world 14 of them (almost 20 percent) were born within nine years of each other (1831-1840) in the same country (USA).  Gladwell says this statistic is no coincidence.  It is a result of a generation entering the workforce during the emergence of the railroad, wallstreet and industrial manufacturing.  Had John Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie been born a decade later or earlier, they likely would have missed the incredible opportunities presented to them in the early stages of their working careers.  

On the other side of that spectrum are those who began their working careers amidst the Great Depression.  With jobs scarce and economic opportunities rare, even the brightest minds and most talented individuals of that time were forced into poverty.

So if the generation you are born in ultimately helps determine how successful you will be, where does Gen Y fall on this spectrum?  Call me an optimist, but I believe we have an opportunity to be a generation of “outliers”. 

Here’s why:

  • The economic rules are being rewritten- Like those born in the 1830’s, we are entering an economy that is going through a massive overhaul.  Energy, healthcare and Wallstreet are all embarking on huge face lifts, and in theory this will create unlimited opportunities for our generation.  While those before us will be too old to take advantage and those after us will be too young to capitalize, we are entering the work force just in time to reap the benefits of the coming changes.
  • We are beginning our investing careers in a historically low market- According to Carl Richards, you set yourself up for well above average returns by beginning your investing in a down market.  While this market is a disaster for those nearing retirement, it could be a huge blessing for those of us just beginning to invest.  Assuming we don’t see an economic downturn this bad again for the next 50 or so years (which is a pretty safe assumption if history is any indication) we will come out well ahead as a result of the market we are entering.
  • We had “helicopter parents”- What is seen as bad thing by many, Gladwell considers our parents extraordinary involvements in our lives growing up a huge advantage to our future.  The largest difference between the poor and the rich growing up, he argues, is the involvment of parents.  Gladwells studies show that the more involved a parent was in a childs life, the better off he fares as an adult.  If that is the case, most of us are in great shape.
  • New technology is at an all-time high- With social media exploding and businesses figuring out different ways to benefit from it everyday, our generation will be called upon to both integrate these technologies into their business and continue coming up with new and better technology.

I still believe success is mostly dependant on your talent and work ethic.  But after reading outliers I’m more convinced of the role factors outside our control play in it.  I believe our generation is being put in a position of enormous opportunity.  Our talents and willingness to work will ultimately determine whether or not we take advantage of those opportunities.

What do you think?  Is our generation set up for success or failure?  Or do you not believe Gladwells assertion that our generation will ultimately help dictate how successful we will be?

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Anonymous
March 27, 2009 8:11 am

I agree with points 2,3 and 4 but I think point 1 will be a huge net negative and thus up-end your theory. Interesting none the less.

SR1
March 27, 2009 9:31 am

I needed a definition of "Outliers" beyond the most obvious to understand exactly what you were saying. However, I'm afraid I agree with Anonymous above. The reformation of these industries/ components of our economy are a negative to individual wealth accumulatuion and are intended to be(although they are being pitched differently by the administration and mainstream media). I also see another huge negative from this generation in the reimergence of heightened class antagonisms (or perhaps envy) that is fueling much of the radical changes in the econom,ic and industrial environment.

I might just have to read the book, but could you clarify the meaning of the term "Outliers?"

March 27, 2009 9:50 am

@SR1,

Ah, good point. Not sure how I wrote that whole article without Gladwells exact definition of an "outlier". Thanks for pointing that mistake out.

These are the two definitions he gives for outliers...

1. something that is situated away from or classed differently from a main or related body.

2. a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample.

For the books purposes, he was discussing outliers as people (or generations, or nations, or ethnicities etc.) who succeeded at a much higher rate than others. For example, Lebron James is an extreme outlier.

But an outlier can be at the other end of the spectrum as well, being an extreme failure compared to the norm.

I think with the economic environment we are facing it is extremely likely our generation will be outliers on one end of the specrum or the other. I do agree with both you and anonymous that if the current global problems continue to get worse and last longer than expected, we could be screwed.

Miles
March 27, 2009 11:10 am

I think we're unlikely to be outliers. Gladwell found the richest Americans ever were born in one of the smallest generations of Americans ever. Given the decent size of Y it means we will be competing against a larger number our own age for success. But that's just his definition.

March 27, 2009 4:05 pm

@Josh, thanks for the stimulating post. I will add Gladwell's latest to my reading list based on your interpretation (I have enjoyed his other books).

@Miles - I have to agree with you that it is unlikely that Millennials (born 1982-200?) will have many outliers based on what Josh describes. It's not just the size, it's the character of the generation. Millennials, as a generation, are not risk-takers, especially when compared with Generation X (born 1961-1981). That, on the whole, is a good thing because it also means that Millennials are more civic-minded and will likely work together to build a better future. But when it comes to outliers, it is Generation X, who were the alienated slackers in their youth, that are willing to break the mold. I also think that it is Generation X that will be hardest hit during this economic downturn. We are in our "prime" earning years and many have been laid off. Millennials have a good chance at a strong economy 15 years from now when the crisis has ended. For more on why I would say this, see my blog post on How Generations Predict the Crisis will last until 2025
Thanks again for the stimulating post.

March 28, 2009 12:28 am

Josh, great topic! I was thinking the same questions as I read the book.

Totally agree that Gen X is too old to take advantage - you can already see it with how they use (or don't use) technology.

But... you say that the younger generations will be too young to capitalize. I'm not sure about that. I think that they actually may have an advantage.

March 29, 2009 10:26 pm

Nice post. I hope we are set up to be a generation of outliers. Some say, I think incorrectly, that Gen Yers are too group oriented to have outliers. I think that certain "groups" of Gen Yers will emerge, even in this economy, as game changers who are doing truly amazing things.

I have to agree with Eva Rykr though. I think the next generation will definitely have an advantage. By the time they're coming out of the gates, I imagine that things will be easier because those rules you mentioned earlier will be rewritten with enough time for the next gen to study them well.

Nonetheless, I'm optimistic and hope that we will produce a group of people like those Malcolm mentioned.

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