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The Facebook dynasty is impossible to dispute, but today I find myself questioning its longevity as a mass market social networking tool.
(She pauses. Waits for some sort of sign from the heavens. It is always watching...)
BusinessWeek says Facebook is not going to let the financial crisis get it down. The site plans to expand, rolling out new versions in multiple languages, recruiting top tech talent and acquiring struggling Internet startups. (Twitter, however, says thanks but no thanks to Facebook's advances.) And, if you can imagine, the Omnipresent Web site is recruiting more members. I give it 1.5 years before my grandma is on Facebook. And then will it hit its peak?
The exclusivity of Facebook is definitely long gone, but I sort of miss the days before I had 500 friends. A quick and indulgent stroll down memory lane: First Facebook was a voyeuristic place for college kids. You were friends with your roommate; then the girl down the hall; then the guy who sits next to you in Economics; then the entire Western Hemisphere including your extended family, entire office building and every single person you ever said hello to in a hostel. When did it all happen? It has revolutionized how we study, gather information, make friends, date, do our jobs, politick, witness ourselves, etc., etc., etc. How ironic that a Web site that started at Elitist University became such a populist institution.
I just wonder if Facebook can stay on top of the movement it started without recreating some of its old exclusivity. Call me a "purist," but there's something to be said for the good old days of Facebook.
Imagine if the first TV program of all time launched today. It would seem cool and revolutionary that this talking box changed the way we receive information. It would be only a matter of time before there would be several different channels for several different people. There would be more general channels and more specialized channels. There would be channels just for cooking and channels just for sex.
So, yes, I see Facebook breaking off in more niche ways to reach more specialized groups. There are already niche social networking communities out there. The reason I thought of it is that Reader's Digest is teaming up with Rick Warren (author of The Purpose Driven Life) to create a Christian Facebook. Socialnetworklist.com has more than 700 niche social networks listed.
Knowing Facebook like I do, I'm sure it will continually reinvent itself, and we'll probably see status updates from Neptune in a couple years. All I am saying is, how long can me, my mom, and my grandma live under the same digital roof? This might be the most unifying thing that has happened to the world both geographically and culturally. If this were the Civil War, the North and the South would be together under the same blue logo. It's kind of a cool thought, but can this really last?
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Comments
11.26.08
I kind of miss the old facebook too. Everyone I know is on it now; it's no longer just for fun with your college friends...
11.26.08
Thanks for feeling my pain! I guess I can tell my kids that "I remember back in the day when you could put kegstand pictures up on Facebook."
11.26.08
I wrote about the Old Facebook and the New Facebook in my blog awhile ago -- I definitely miss the old guy! This new one is an ever-expanding monster.
11.26.08
Actually Sindhuga, I think I read that post you wrote. It looks like I'm not alone in my lamentation. I guess it was inevitable. Mostly though, I am interested in how it really has brought the world together...Totally weird. Thanks for the comment!
11.27.08
I honestly see Facebook's biggest hurdle one of revenues. MySpace has been the same for quite some time, yet it still continues to generate growth and quite a profit. Facebook is much more innovative than MySpace, and if they continue (or should I say manage?) to roll out game-changing elements out like Facebook's Friend Connect, they'll still be way ahead of the game, and continuing to open up the opportunity for diversified revenue streams.
In terms of market saturation (what happens when all of our grandparents are on facebook), I'd challenge you from an opposite perspective. Is saturating the market a bad thing? Facebook has created its own ecosystem- the larger it is, the more potential it has to draw from. So long as the users stay active, even if growth slowed, the ecosystem can still sustain (Eg: Apple's iphone + app store).
Just some thoughts.
11.27.08
Hi Nathan! Thanks so much for the comment. I see your point about market saturation and am glad you brought it up. Maybe it might make Facebook sustainable (I like how you say it will have its own "ecosystem"). However, I kind of believe (and I bet we'll see it), that in order to last with the changing social networking needs of the world, Facebook itself will develop more niche-like properties. So in that sense, we will both be right in that it both saturates the market, but in a segmented form!
Of course, I guess we'll see! I feel like Facebook definitely runs the show right now, so who knows what it'll do next ...
12.04.08
I actually see LinkedIn operating as a niche of social media as it is meant for purely professional contacts only. I will be curious to see how Facebook carve itself niches, perhaps along such lines as "types" of connections and networks one can have. Who knows...!
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